When I (Josh) was in college, I started making an effort to see all five of the films nominated for Best Picture. This usually wasn't too hard, as I'd generally seen at least 2-3 of them when the nominations were announced. But, last year, the Academy decided to re-introduce a long-dormant practice of nominating 10 films. Surprisingly, we had seen almost all of them the past two years, so catching up was a breeze. This year, I've seen all 10 films, while Emily has seen 9 of the 10. Emily has not seen Toy Story 3 because she is one of perhaps a handful of people on Earth who do not enjoy that series. I, on the other hand, watched the 3D re-issues of the first two films in the theater last year, and then openly cried at the ending of the final installment (I *kind of* have a soft spot for toys. And by "soft spot," I mean that I still have a lot of toys. A lot. As in ones that I don't allow any kids to play with, lest they mess them up. Mine, mine, mine.).
So, here are our picks for the 83rd annual Academy Awards (at least for the major categories):
Actress in a Supporting Role
- Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
- Helena Bonham Carter in “The King's Speech”
- Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
- Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
- Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”
Josh - The Academy has a history of giving this to fresh performances by young and/or first-time actresses (see Tatum O'Neal in "Paper Moon," Anna Paquin in "The Pianist," and Jennifer Hudson in "Dreamgirls."). Fourteen-year-old Hailee Steinfeld was incredible in "True Grit," and I think the Academy will recognize that.
Emily - Although she did an awfully strange Oscar campaign, I think Melissa Leo is a lock for this category. She was nearly unrecognizable as the momager of her sons' boxing careers.
Actor in a Supporting Role
- Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
- John Hawkes in “Winter's Bone”
- Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
- Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
- Geoffrey Rush in “The King's Speech”
Josh - Having seen all five of these performances, I can tell you that only two nominees have a chance at winning: Christian Bale and Geoffrey Rush. Both were amazing playing real-life individuals, but Geoffrey Rush already has an Oscar for his role in the 1996 film "Shine." Christian Bale is only 37, but he's already proved to be one of the most versatile, talented actors around. He deserves this award, and I'm pretty certain he will win.
Emily - There's no possible way it won't be Christian Bale. Of course, we all know that I'm seldom correct about anything, so who knows?
Animated Feature Film
- “How to Train Your Dragon” Chris Sanders and Dean DeBlois
- “The Illusionist” Sylvain Chomet
- “Toy Story 3” Lee Unkrich
Josh - I meant to watch "How to Train Your Dragon," because I hear it's excellent. I'll get to it. I keep hearing lovely things about "The Illusionist," and I do love all things French cinema. But, "Toy Story 3" got the nod for Best Picture... and it's a brilliant film and a fitting end to a wonderful series.
Emily - Everybody says that "Toy Story 3" can't lose. But, I'm going with "The Illusionist."
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
- “127 Hours” Screenplay by Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy
- “The Social Network” Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin
- “Toy Story 3” Screenplay by Michael Arndt; Story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich
- “True Grit” Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
- “Winter's Bone” Adapted for the screen by Debra Granik & Anne Rosellini
Josh - Before the nominations were announced, "The Social Network" was the favorite to win Best Picture. I think this will end up being it's only major award, unless David Fincher can also win Best Director.
Emily - Probably "The Social Network." I'm pretty "meh" about this movie.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
- “Another Year” Written by Mike Leigh
- “The Fighter” Screenplay by Scott Silver and Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson;
Story by Keith Dorrington & Paul Tamasy & Eric Johnson - “Inception” Written by Christopher Nolan
- “The Kids Are All Right” Written by Lisa Cholodenko & Stuart Blumberg
- “The King's Speech” Screenplay by David Seidler
Josh - I think "The Fighter" is a good choice here. It's an incredible film with great performances and hilarious dialogue, especially from all those crazy "Bah-Ston" sisters of Mark Wahlberg and Christian Bale (including Conan O'Brien's sister!!). That said, I think "The King's Speech" will ultimately win.
Emily - I would like to think "Inception" would win this. I loved the artistry of that movie. (And it probably won't win much else. Maybe art direction).
Documentary (Feature)
- “Exit through the Gift Shop” Banksy and Jaimie D'Cruz
- “Gasland” Josh Fox and Trish Adlesic
- “Inside Job” Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
- “Restrepo” Tim Hetherington and Sebastian Junger
- “Waste Land” Lucy Walker and Angus Aynsley
Josh - I've only seen "Exit Through the Gift Shop," thus far, but I hear Restrepo and Gasland are fantastic. I'll go with "Exit Through the Gift Shop," because I think the Academy wants to see what elusive British graffiti artist Banksy will do if he wins, as they told him he cannot accept the award in disguise in an attempt to conceal his unknown identity.
Emily - Probably "Restrepo," but only because it's on Netflix streaming right now so I recognize the title. I saw some of "Exit Through the Gift Shop" and it was good, but I don't think it's the kind of movie that will win the Academy Award.
Actress in a Leading Role
- Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
- Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
- Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter's Bone”
- Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
- Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”
Josh - Natalie Portman will win this. Sorry, Annette Bening... one day you'll win an Oscar. But, Natalie Portman's performance in "Black Swan" STILL haunts my dreams. Seriously. Plus, she's pregnant. The Academy cannot resist giving Oscars to pregnant ladies. But... even if she weren't with child... she'd win anyway. This was, hands down, the best performance this year.
Emily - Natalie Portman. Yup.
Actor in a Leading Role
- Javier Bardem in “Biutiful”
- Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
- Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
- Colin Firth in “The King's Speech”
- James Franco in “127 Hours”
Josh - This one isn't even a contest. Colin Firth received his first Oscar nomination last year for the intriguing, depressing film "The Single Man." He lost that race to Jeff Bridges. This year, Jeff Bridges, who was fantastic in "True Grit," will lose to Colin Firth. His performance as King George VI in "The King's Speech" was funny, inspiring and sensational. He's going to win this. Count on it.
Emily - Colin Firth. I don't think I've read any articles where this is even a debate. He is excellent in this movie and everyone should go see it. And Josh should probably see it again since he fell asleep halfway through (Note: Only for a few minutes! I'll watch it again on DVD -- Josh).
Directing
- “Black Swan” Darren Aronofsky
- “The Fighter” David O. Russell
- “The King's Speech” Tom Hooper
- “The Social Network” David Fincher
- “True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
Josh - It's somewhat rare that a film wins Best Picture without netting this award for the person at its helm. BUT... it does happen (see Steven Spielberg for "Saving Private Ryan," Ang Lee for "Brokeback Mountain" and Roman Polanski for "The Pianist" in the past 10 years). However, what almost ALWAYS happens is the winner of the Directors Guild of America award for Best Director also wins the Oscar for Best Director (it's only NOT happened six times since the DGA award was instituted in 1948). I think David Fincher could still win, but my money is on Tom Hooper, who already won the DGA award.
Emily - I would like Tom Hooper to win. I really loved this movie (can't you tell?)
Best Picture
- “Black Swan” Mike Medavoy, Brian Oliver and Scott Franklin, Producers
- “The Fighter” David Hoberman, Todd Lieberman and Mark Wahlberg, Producers
- “Inception” Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers
- “The Kids Are All Right” Gary Gilbert, Jeffrey Levy-Hinte and Celine Rattray, Producers
- “The King's Speech” Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Gareth Unwin, Producers
- “127 Hours” Christian Colson, Danny Boyle and John Smithson, Producers
- “The Social Network” Scott Rudin, Dana Brunetti, Michael De Luca and Ceรกn Chaffin, Producers
- “Toy Story 3” Darla K. Anderson, Producer
- “True Grit” Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
- “Winter's Bone" Anne Rosellini and Alix Madigan-Yorkin, Producers
Josh - Since I've seen all 10 of these films, I'll give you a quick recap on each one in reverse order of which films I think have the best chance at winning Best Picture.
10. "The Kids Are All Right" -- This is a good movie with some really good performances. But, rest assured, this is the #10 film on the list and could have easily been substituted with favorites like "The Town" and "Rabbit Hole." I like this film, but it has no chance of winning.
9. "Winter's Bone" -- Sadly, this film reminded me a lot of my hometown in Eastern Oregon. A lot of apathy about life... a lot of really young mothers married to disinterested men. A lot of generational poverty. And meth users (which really wasn't like my hometown growing up, but might be now). It's not a particularly enjoyable film, but it's well done. Jennifer Lawrence was great in the film, hence her nod in the Best Actress category. But, "Winter's Bone" is not a viable contender.
8. "Inception" -- I absolutely loved "Inception." I saw it on my birthday in the amazing Cinetopia theater, hands down the best theater in the Portland-metro area. This is the only one of these ten films that I own on Blu-ray and I think it's a downright shame that Christopher Nolan was snubbed AGAIN for a Best Director nod. But, as cool and crazy amazing this film is, "Inception" is not the Best Picture of the year.
7. "127 Hours" -- When I first heard about the story of Aron Ralson, I was pretty happy that I'd never become a rock climber (in fact, it's one of those things, like skydiving, that'd I will never do, unless I'm someday on "The Amazing Race."). My first thought upon hearing about this movie was, "Well, how can you root for that guy? He's an idiot who should have known better." And, bless director Danny Boyle (who won an Oscar for "Slumdog Millionaire")... he allows the audience to preserve those feelings while still having empathy for Ralston's situation. I really enjoyed this movie, even though the money shot/scene is one of the most difficult things I have ever seen on film. I left feeling that we humans are pretty amazing at getting ourselves out of crappy situtations (and probably even more amazing at getting into those situations).
6. "Toy Story 3" -- I'm a man who was once a boy who loved toys. I really like toys. As Emily will confirm, I love action figures, models, figurines... anything poseable that can be displayed, as evidenced by this picture of my computer desk where I'm currently writing this post. "Toy Story 3" deserves to be in this category, though it won't win. I'm not sure an animated film will ever be able to win Best Picture, especially since there is a separate animated feature category. But, if "Toy Story 3" didn't warm your heart even a little... you might be a bit dead inside. It's that good... even if it doesn't make you cry little boy tears like me.
5. "The Fighter" -- This is a really good film and it's going to win Christian Bale an Oscar. But, there's not enough to propel it to win Best Picture. The other films are just too good. Still, the Academy loves boxing films (see Best Picture winners "Rocky" and "Million Dollar Baby," plus Best Picture nominee "Raging Bull" which netted Robert De Niro his second Oscar), and "The Fighter" rightfully belongs amongst the traditional top five nominees.
4. "Black Swan" --If I were picking what I think should win Best Picture, I'd pick Darren Aronofsky's "Black Swan." No other film had the same effect on me as this insane story about a ballerina obsessed with her goal of playing both the White Swan and Black Swan in Tchaikovsky's "Swan Lake." The film is dark, yet vivid... frightening, yet beautiful. If the other three films didn't exist, or had Natalie Portman previously won an Oscar, I think this could have been the frontrunner.
3. "True Grit" -- The Coen Brothers are great filmmakers, and "True Grit" is their first Western ("No Country for Old Men" may seem like a Western, but it's set in modern times). I loved this movie. It had great performances by Jeff Bridges and Matt Damon... and Hailee Steinfeld was fantastic. But, I think the Academy is so used to the Coen Brothers constantly churning out good stuff (they've had three films nominated for Best Picture in the past four years), that expectations are really high. Those expectations are generally met... but it makes it easier for other films to slip in ahead, which is the case this year.
2. "The Social Network" -- I was one of the first people I knew to join The Facebook when it came to my college, the University of Oregon (and yep, it was called "The Facebook" back then, as was the corresponding URL), and I've been a fan ever since. Before I even knew this film was being made, I read the book on which it's based, "The Accidental Billionaires." And, last year, I even went to visit Harvard, where an old roommate is attending law school. From the stories he's told me about fellow Harvard students literally RIPPING pages out of reserved library texts so that no one else can finish an assignment, I can sense that Ivy League students can be rather terrible to each other. I have no doubt that Mark Zuckerberg really did burn many bridges on his way to becoming the youngest billionaire on Earth, and the story is pretty much better than anything someone could have made up. Jesse Eisenberg is excellent, even if not a spot-on carbon copy of Zuckerberg. Two months ago, THIS was a shoo-in to win Best Picture. But, as always happens with the Oscars, it's not JUST about quality; it's about timing.
1. "The King's Speech" -- First of all, I must comment that, yes, when Emily and I saw this movie, I did doze off a bit. But... not because it wasn't interesting. We had gone to the gym and then had lunch where I had some fairly yummy, but very filling lasagna. My body was just too comfy and I dozed off. But, I honestly only missed a few minutes. It happens. I'm only human.
That said... this film is really, really good. No, it would not be my choice for Best Picture, only because my choice would be based more on the film that had me LOVING cinema all over again this year. And... that was, hands down, Black Swan. If you haven't seen it, GO NOW. It's amazing!!
But... this post isn't about the films I think SHOULD win... it's about the films I think WILL win. And, this year, it's going to be The King's Speech. I'm sad to hear that money-grubbing producer Harvey Weinstein plans to censor this down to a PG-13 rating, but, really, when a film like this gets slapped with an "R" rating, not for vulgarity, sex, or violence -- of which there is absolutely none --, but specifically language that is integral to the story, it just further proves that the ratings system is a joke. Do yourself a favor: See this film. It's fascinating and cool, inspiring and sensational. And when it wins tonight, I will applaud its victory.
Emily - I won't do a recap. "The King's Speech" is going to win. I suppose "The Social Network" could do an upset, but I think this is pretty much the most confident I have felt about my picks. Of course, I have a horrible habit of being wrong about pretty much everything all of the time.














